Refinancing Surge Expected as Mortgage Holders Brace for Fall Renewals

As Canadians look ahead to the fall, a surge in mortgage refinancing activity is expected to sweep across the country. Many borrowers who locked in low fixed rates during the pandemic are now facing renewal notices with significantly higher monthly payments. For some, the increase could be as much as $800 or more per month.
According to broker reports, more homeowners are exploring refinance options before their fixed terms end in Q3 and Q4 of 2025. With current fixed rates hovering between 4.89% and 5.29%, refinancing early is being seen as a strategic move to avoid even higher rates or payment shock later this year.

“If you’re planning to refinance at renewal, it’s important to understand how the stress test applies—or doesn’t—when switching lenders.”

Why Refinance Now?
Brokers say the window to refinance at sub-5% rates may not last much longer, especially if inflation surprises to the upside or if the US Federal Reserve delays its expected rate cuts. For mortgage holders who are halfway through their term, early refinancing can offer access to equity, reduced overall interest, or better terms tailored to current income.
“We’re advising clients not to wait until their renewal notice hits,” said a Vancouver-based mortgage expert. “If you can break early with minimal penalties and reset your amortization, it could offer breathing room and payment stability going forward.”

“As more homeowners face renewal shock this fall, deferral requests are once again climbing across the country.”

Who Should Consider It?
Homeowners who:

• Expect tighter household budgets in 2026
• Need access to home equity for renovations or debt consolidation
• Want to switch from variable to fixed before volatility returns
• Are in a good financial position to absorb prepayment penalties

…are all good candidates to speak with a mortgage broker.