Experts say 3% mortgages aren’t coming back anytime soon — and waiting too long could backfire.

Across Canada, brokers are raising a red flag: too many homebuyers are waiting for “unrealistic” interest rates before making a move. And that wait might be costing them more than they realize.

“I hear it every day — ‘I’m holding out for 3% again,’” said a Toronto-based mortgage broker. “But that market is gone. Buyers are comparing today’s rates to 2020, and that’s just not the world we’re in anymore.”

With the Bank of Canada holding its key rate steady at 2.75%, most 5-year fixed mortgage rates are sitting in the 4.84% to 5.5% range. That’s higher than pandemic-era lows, but far from unaffordable — especially when inflation is cooling and incomes are rising modestly.

“In a confusing rate environment, knowing whether to use a broker or a bank can make a big financial difference.”

What’s Driving the Disconnect?

Brokers say a lot of the confusion comes from social media, headlines, and pre-pandemic memory. Many Canadians expect:

Rates to fall below 4% again
BoC to slash quickly after the next cut
Housing prices to crash alongside rates

But experts argue those expectations don’t reflect how the 2025 economy works. Inflation is still hovering above 2%, and bond yields remain elevated. Even if BoC cuts rates this fall, we’re likely to see slow, measured adjustments — not freefall.

“People are anchoring to old numbers. It’s like expecting gas to drop to 70 cents a litre,” another Ontario broker added.

“And as always, buyers should be informed about how brokers earn their commissions — and who’s paying them.”

Why Waiting May Hurt

Some buyers waiting for a perfect storm — low prices and low rates — may find themselves priced out if:

Rates don’t drop as expected
Prices rise again when competition returns
Lenders tighten qualifying rules further

That means buyers who could qualify today — and afford today’s payments — might miss their window by betting on rate fantasies.

“While some expect a rate cut this fall, others caution against making buying decisions based on uncertain forecasts.”

📋 What Most Buyers Think Rates Will Be vs Reality

💭 Expectation: “Rates will drop below 3% again by next year.”
📉 Reality: Most experts forecast a floor near 4% for the foreseeable future.
💭 Expectation: “BoC will cut rapidly, like during COVID.”
📉 Reality: BoC is signaling gradual, cautious cuts only if inflation allows.
💭 Expectation: “Prices will fall with rates.”
📉 Reality: Lower rates often trigger demand, pushing home prices back up.
💭 Expectation: “I’ll qualify for more when rates fall.”
📉 Reality: Stress tests and lender rules often adjust, neutralizing the gain.

Misjudging the market can delay your purchase — or worse, price you out completely. Talk to an expert and plan realistically.

📌 Speak to a Mortgage Expert

Don’t wait for a rate that may never return. Our experts will help you build a mortgage strategy that fits today’s market — and tomorrow’s uncertainty.

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