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Canada Housing Market Outlook as of Today
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The start of 2023 hasn’t been easy for Canada’s housing market. Home sales have stumbled into the year at a pace not seen since the 2009 financial crisis. With elevated interest rates, affordability concerns, and low inventory levels across many provinces, buyers and sellers alike are treading cautiously.
Still, even in this quieter market, there are signs of what might be around the corner — and opportunities for those paying attention. Here’s what the current housing landscape looks like across Canada, who’s buying, and where things may be headed in 2024.
Will Home Prices Increase in 2023-2024?
Canada’s big banks and housing analysts are mostly aligned on this: 2023 is expected to remain a cooling-off period, with prices either dipping modestly or staying stable. The Bank of Canada’s series of rate hikes throughout 2022 and early 2023 significantly slowed market activity, and the impact is still rippling through the system.
That said, 2024 is predicted to bring a rebound. TD Bank, for instance, expects home sales to bounce back by over 19%, and average prices to rise by around 6% nationally. This expected recovery depends heavily on interest rate trends, inflation tapering, and renewed buyer confidence.
Until then, buyers have the upper hand. With less competition and more room to negotiate, it’s a chance for serious house hunters to find deals that weren’t available during the boom years.
📈 Projected Home Sales & Prices (Canada: 2023–2025)
This chart shows forecasted trends in national home sales and average prices across three key years.
Average Home Sale Price by Major City
Sales activity in January 2023 was down nearly 18.3% year-over-year, with the steepest declines in Ontario and British Columbia. However, some cities bucked the trend and saw price growth. Here’s a snapshot of average sale prices across Canada in January 2023:
[Placeholder: Infographic table of average home prices by city]
| City | Avg. Sale Price | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|
| Toronto | $1,078,900 | ↓ 14.2% |
| Hamilton | $809,800 | ↓ 20% |
| London | $568,300 | ↓ 22.2% |
| Ottawa | $603,900 | ↓ 10.7% |
| Montreal | $490,000 | ↓ 5.5% |
| Winnipeg | $323,600 | ↓ 8.5% |
| Edmonton | $362,200 | ↓ 3.6% |
| Calgary | $509,900 | ↑ 6.1% |
| Vancouver | $1,111,400 | ↓ 6.6% |
| Regina | $312,200 | ↓ 1% |
| Halifax | $490,700 | ↑ 5.4% |
| Saint John | $268,400 | ↑ 5.4% |
| St. John’s | $316,300 | ↑ 5.4% |
The western provinces, especially Alberta and parts of the Maritimes, have shown more resilience thanks to relative affordability and economic momentum.
Who’s Buying Real Estate in Canada Right Now?
Despite the slump, buying activity hasn’t stopped entirely. Investors still make up around 20% of all home purchases across the country, though the recent foreign buyer ban (effective Jan 1, 2023) is expected to reduce speculative activity in major urban markets.
The biggest group driving demand now? Millennials. Many are entering peak homebuying years and seeking more space or stability, especially in smaller cities. Meanwhile, Baby Boomers and Gen X buyers still play a strong role, particularly those looking to downsize or invest in multi-family homes.
Canada Housing Market Outlook in 2023
So, where is the market headed through the rest of 2023?
Most signs point to a continued buyers’ market as high interest rates keep monthly mortgage costs elevated. The Bank of Canada paused its rate hikes in March 2023 (holding the key rate at 4.5%), but borrowing remains expensive. Until rates ease — likely in 2024 — many would-be buyers will stay on the sidelines.
Sellers are holding off too, which is creating historically low inventory. This mismatch is keeping prices from crashing but making it tough for buyers to find options.
🗺️ Housing Inventory Across Major Canadian Provinces
This map highlights current housing inventory levels—measured as months of supply—across Canada’s most active real estate markets.
[Interactive version can be added via Mapbox or SVG]
The Impact of Inflation
Inflation in January 2023 sat at 5.9%, still above the BoC’s ideal 2% target. The full economic effects of past rate hikes likely haven’t surfaced yet, with many economists expecting more visible slowdowns mid-2023. Once inflation is under control, we could see the BoC reduce rates in early 2024 — giving the housing market a much-needed lift.
Until then, buyers should focus on affordability, fixed-rate mortgages, and keeping an eye on local inventory trends.
FAQs
Will the housing market crash?
Unlikely. While prices may dip slightly, demand remains relatively strong in affordable regions, and major crashes require far deeper economic shocks.
Is now a good time to buy in Canada?
If you’re financially ready and buying for the long term, yes. Fewer bidding wars and more price flexibility make this an opportune moment.
What can I do to qualify for a mortgage today?
Have a down payment ready, maintain a credit score over 680, and ensure your debt-to-income ratio is below 39%.
Final Thoughts
Canada’s real estate market in 2023 is all about patience, preparation, and perspective. If you’re a first-time buyer, the coming months could offer better deals and less competition — especially if you’re open to relocating to more affordable markets.
For sellers, it may be worth holding off until demand ramps back up in late 2024. Either way, keeping an eye on inflation, BoC announcements, and regional data will help you make informed decisions
