National Mortgage Delinquency Rate Falls for First Time in Three Years

November 20, 2025 — Toronto

Canada’s national mortgage delinquency rate has edged lower for the first time in nearly three years, according to fresh data from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). The rate slipped to 0.22% in Q2 2025, down from 0.23% in Q1, offering a small but meaningful sign of stability in a market that has been under heavy rate pressure since 2022.

Atlantic Canada, Quebec and Prairies Lead the Improvement

The overall national improvement was supported by stronger payment performance in Atlantic Canada, Quebec, and several Prairie provinces.
These regions have shown resilience this year, helped by steadier labour markets and more moderate home-price growth compared to major metropolitan centres.

CityNews Toronto and Mortgage Rates Canada both reported that this marks the first downward movement in delinquency trends since the Bank of Canada began its rapid rate-hiking cycle.

Ontario and B.C. Are Still Feeling the Strain

While the national average ticked down, some of the country’s most expensive markets continue to move in the opposite direction.

• Toronto’s delinquency rate climbed to 0.24%, up nearly 60% year-over-year.
• British Columbia also saw increases, particularly in high-priced urban areas where homeowners carry large mortgage balances and have limited flexibility to refinance.

In these two provinces, rising borrowing costs and affordability fatigue are showing up more visibly in payment stress, suggesting the risk profile is diverging region by region.

The Massive Renewal Wave Ahead

CMHC also highlighted the structural challenge looming over the next 18 months — one of the largest mortgage renewal cycles in Canadian history:

• 750,000+ mortgages will renew between July and December 2025
• Another 1.15 million hit renewal in 2026

Many of these borrowers locked in ultra-low pandemic-era rates and will renew at sharply higher interest costs. That transition, CMHC warns, could create additional financial strain and slow or reverse the positive trend in national delinquency rates.

What This Means for Lenders and Investors

The data signals a mix of resilience and caution:

• Encouraging: A national decline suggests most regions are adapting to higher rates.
• Caution: Ontario and B.C. remain pressure points, and the renewal shock of 2025–26 could increase future delinquencies.

For investors in mortgage-backed securities or housing-finance assets, regional differentiation is key. For lenders, renewal-year risk management remains one of the top priorities.

The first decline in Canada’s mortgage delinquency rate in three years is welcome news — but it is not yet a market turnaround. Regional stress, affordability challenges, and the upcoming renewal wave all point toward a cautious, closely-watched year ahead for homeowners and lenders.