BoC Warns Majority Face Payment Hike at Renewal

Bank of Canada: 60% of mortgages renewing in 2025–26 will have higher monthly payments

Canada. A new analytical note from the Bank of Canada warns that 60% of all mortgages up for renewal in 2025–26 will face increased monthly payments, a trend driven by elevated interest rates and expiring ultra-low pandemic-era terms.

According to the BoC’s internal data model, most borrowers coming off 5-year fixed rates from 2020–21 will see sharp jumps, especially in cities like Toronto, Vancouver, and Calgary, where mortgage sizes are larger.

While some homeowners have already budgeted for higher payments, the central bank cautions that others may experience “financial stress” or will need to adjust spending to stay on top of their obligations.

“The Bank of Canada’s warning mirrors its own 2025 forecast and aligns with data that 60% of Canadians could see a rise in payments.”

The BoC note also confirms that variable-rate borrowers with fixed payments have already hit their trigger point, and these too will roll over into higher payment brackets at renewal.
Wondering what’s driving this surge in payments?
Check out the full BoC Forecast for 2025 Mortgage Renewals to understand the projected 10% spike.