All eyes are on the Bank of Canada once again as it prepares to announce its next rate decision on July 30, 2025 — and this time, the anticipation is dialled up a notch.

While inflation has cooled and economic growth has slowed, the BoC has been cautious about signaling further cuts too quickly. Most analysts say another 25-basis-point cut is possible, but markets aren’t betting on it with full confidence.

According to a recent Reuters survey, only around 30% of economists expect a cut this month, while the rest believe the BoC may hold off until September or later. But that doesn’t mean the odds are low — they’re just conditional.

Where the Experts Stand

The big question: Have conditions weakened enough to justify another cut?

TD Economics expects two more cuts in 2025, including a potential one at the July meeting if inflation remains tame and job numbers don’t surprise.
CIBC is leaning more cautious, suggesting the central bank will likely pause in July and revisit cuts in the fall based on housing data and consumer spending trends.
True North Mortgage’s latest outlook says a July cut is “on the table, but hinges on U.S. trade pressure and domestic demand fatigue.

What the Market’s Saying

The bond market is slightly more optimistic.
The 5-year Government of Canada bond yield dropped to 2.58% this week — its lowest since early April. That typically signals that investors are expecting some policy easing in the near term.

But there’s still a tug-of-war between domestic data and global risk. With the U.S. Fed holding its benchmark rate steady and inflation across the border still sticky, the Bank of Canada may hesitate to move too quickly and risk a currency imbalance.

📈 Rate Cut Probability by Meeting Date

July 30, 2025: ~30% chance of 25bps cut
September 10, 2025: ~55% chance
October 29, 2025: ~70%+ if inflation continues to soften

What This Means for You

If you’re in a variable-rate mortgage, you’re probably watching the July 30 date closely. A cut would offer near-instant payment relief — even if small.

But if the BoC holds steady, that doesn’t mean you’re stuck. Fixed mortgage rates are more closely tied to bond yields, which have already started falling. That’s why we’ve seen select 3- and 5-year fixed rates dip below 4.3% again.

Key takeaways for borrowers:

Don’t expect deep or frequent rate cuts. One more modest move is the most likely case.
If you’re planning to lock in, watch the bond market, not just BoC moves.
Use this period to refinance strategically or adjust your amortization if you’re stretched.
Consider 1- to 3-year fixed options for flexibility while still gaining from recent declines.

With the BoC walking a tightrope between economic support and inflation control, July’s announcement might be more about messaging than movement.