Toronto Home Sales Drop 15.8% in November

Toronto’s housing market continued its cooling trend in November 2025, with the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) reporting a 15.8% decline in home sales compared to the previous year. A total of 5,010 homes were sold, marking the lowest November activity seen since the pandemic disruptions.

Falling sales, slipping prices, and weaker new-listing activity paint a picture of a market caught between high borrowing costs and cautious buyer sentiment. For mortgage borrowers, the shift signals new opportunities—as well as risks—when planning purchases or renewals going into 2026.

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1) Why Toronto’s Sales Fell in November

• Elevated mortgage rates continue to weigh on affordability

Even though the Bank of Canada has paused rate movements, today’s variable and fixed mortgage rates remain significantly higher than the rates borrowers enjoyed in 2020–2022.
For many buyers, the stress-test hurdle remains the biggest challenge.

Impact example:
A buyer approved for $750,000 in 2022 might now qualify for $620,000–$650,000, depending on their income and debts.

This erosion of affordability is one of the primary reasons demand has slowed across the GTA.

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• Economic uncertainty is reshaping buyer psychology

Consumers are acting more cautiously as talk of slower GDP growth and softer hiring conditions circulate. Even buyers who can technically afford to purchase are choosing to wait and “see what happens in spring 2026.”

Buyer behaviour trend:
A growing number of pre-approved borrowers are choosing to renew their rate holds instead of making offers, a sign that sentiment has softened.

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• Limited new listings aren’t helping buyers or sellers

TRREB noted that new listings also fell, tightening an already inconsistent supply picture.
While low supply typically pushes prices upward, the current environment is different: high borrowing costs weigh more heavily on demand than low inventory can support.

Result:
A very thin market — not enough buyers, not enough sellers, and very few competitive bidding situations compared to earlier years.

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2) What Happened to Prices in November?

• Prices slipped modestly year-over-year

Average selling prices fell between 2% and 5.8% depending on housing type.
Condos saw the sharpest declines as investors scaled back due to higher mortgage carrying costs.

• Detached and semi-detached homes held their value slightly better

Low inventory kept single-family homes from falling as sharply, but activity levels still remained low.

• Pressure remains on entry-level segments

First-time buyers continue to struggle under high stress-test benchmarks. Many have shifted their focus to more affordable outer regions such as Durham, Simcoe, and Halton.

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3) Regional Highlights Inside the GTA

• Toronto Core:

Sales down significantly; condos continue experiencing the heaviest price pressure due to investor pullback.

• Peel Region:

Steady but quiet — fewer listings and fewer active buyers.

• York Region:

Luxury and upper-segment homes seeing the fewest transactions.

• Durham Region:

Still showing relatively stable buyer interest because of affordability, though volumes declined year-over-year.

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4) What This Means for Buyers Entering 2026

• More negotiating power

In many segments, buyers can negotiate price reductions, seller credits, or closing-cost assistance—opportunities that did not exist in hot-market years.

• Longer days on market = more time to think

The pressure to make same-day or next-day offers has eased. Buyers now have time for second viewings and proper financial planning.

• Good conditions for buyers with stable incomes

Those who can pass the stress test may find more options and less competition, especially during winter months.

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5) What This Means for Sellers

• Pricing correctly is now essential

Overpricing homes by even 3–5% can push listings into extended time-on-market situations.

• Staging and presentation matter more

With fewer active buyers, listings must stand out visually to generate showings.

• Sellers may need to consider incentives

Some sellers are offering flexible closing dates or small repairs/credits to secure buyers.

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6) The Broader Outlook for 2026

• TRREB expects a “slow recovery” rather than a rebound

A meaningful recovery depends on easing mortgage rates—or at least clarity around the Bank of Canada’s long-term path.

• Demand is expected to return gradually

Population growth, immigration, and household formation remain strong long-term drivers, even if affordability is temporarily stretched.

• Spring 2026 will be the key season to watch

If rates stabilize and buyer confidence improves, activity could begin accelerating around March–April.

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Toronto’s November numbers show a soft, cautious, buyer-favourable market.
Buyers with secure financing may find value opportunities.
Sellers must adapt strategies to a slower environment.
And homeowners approaching renewal should prepare early — especially if moving from ultra-low pandemic rates.

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