CMHC Rental Insight: Housing Starts Rise Driven by Rentals, Not Ownership

Ron Butler Highlights Shift in Canada’s New Housing Supply

Canada — July 21, 2025. Canadian mortgage broker and housing analyst Ron Butler has flagged a critical shift in national housing trends via a recent post on X (formerly Twitter). According to Butler, the latest data from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) reveals that the recent rise in housing starts is almost entirely driven by rental units, not homes for ownership.
The post has gained attention among industry insiders and policy watchers as affordability pressures push more Canadians into long-term renting.

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What the CMHC Data Shows

• Housing starts increased in Q2 2025 after a slowdown in 2024
• The majority of new builds are multi-unit rental projects, particularly in urban cores
• Owner-occupied housing starts remain flat or declining in most provinces
• Purpose-built rentals are receiving stronger policy and financial support from both federal and provincial governments

📌 “Great that we’re building—but buyers aren’t the beneficiaries here,” Butler wrote in his post, citing CMHC graphs on rental construction.

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What It Means for Buyers and Renters

This trend suggests that:

• Builders are shifting focus from condos and single-family homes to rental towers
• Government incentives are favoring rental development (e.g. GST waivers, financing subsidies)
• First-time buyers may face fewer new ownership opportunities, especially in major cities
• Renters may benefit from more supply and stabilizing rents over time

CMHC has also warned that persistently high rates could amplify debt risks for Canadian households — explore that warning here.

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The Policy Angle

Recent federal initiatives, including the Housing Accelerator Fund and low-cost CMHC-backed construction loans, have prioritized multi-unit rental construction. While this may ease pressure on rental markets, it raises questions about:

• The balance of supply for ownership vs rental
• Long-term wealth-building opportunities for young Canadians
• Whether new construction is aligned with buyer demand

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Expert Take

Housing experts believe this marks a structural shift in Canada’s housing strategy.

This rental-driven shift may be partly influenced by the financial pressure on first-time buyers — CMHC recently reported a 17% rise in delinquencies among this group. See the full report here.

“We’re entering a rental-first phase,” says policy analyst Nadine Chawla.
“Homeownership isn’t going away—but it’s being delayed for many more Canadians.”