Why Global Trade Wars May Reshape Canadian Housing Costs in 2025–26

As tariff tensions build between the U.S. and Asian economies, Canadian homebuyers and homeowners could feel the impact in ways that go far beyond electronics and groceries.
A global trade war doesn’t just shake Wall Street — it reshapes construction timelines, housing supply chains, renovation costs, and mortgage strategies right here in Canada.

Let’s break down how Canada’s housing market could be affected if the tariff pressure escalates into a full-blown trade conflict in 2025–26.

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Construction Costs Could Rise Again

Many key materials used in Canadian homebuilding — from steel and aluminum to tiles, stone, fixtures, and cabinets — are imported from Asia. If the U.S. imposes new tariffs on countries like Thailand, Malaysia, Cambodia, and India, global supply chains could get squeezed.

That would increase:

• Builder quotes for new homes
• Cost of finishing or renovating properties
• Delays in home completions due to import bottlenecks

“We saw it in 2021—lumber and drywall prices spiked. If tariffs hit now, that cycle could repeat with even broader materials.”

Affordability Could Get Worse Before It Gets Better

If material costs rise again, new home prices will follow, especially in cities like Toronto, Vancouver, and Calgary where inventory is already tight.

Higher input costs + construction delays = higher sticker prices.

This would make affordability — already stretched — even more difficult for first-time buyers.

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Renovators Will Feel the Squeeze

Even if you’re not buying or building, you’re not immune. Renovation costs will likely rise in response to limited supply and costlier imports.

Expect quotes to rise for:

• Kitchens & bathrooms
• Flooring & painting jobs
• Custom cabinetry, vanities, and millwork

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Policy Response May Shift

The Bank of Canada has been navigating a narrow path — trying to bring inflation down without tanking the housing market. If tariffs push prices higher again (imported inflation), the BoC could delay future rate cuts.

“Global pricing pressure = sticky inflation = higher interest rates for longer.”

This means variable-rate borrowers may see less relief in 2025 than originally expected.

Final Takeaway

Trade wars aren’t just about tariffs and politics — they ripple through the real economy and land in our construction budgets, mortgage renewals, and housing plans.

Whether you’re building, buying, or just budgeting for next year, now is the time to:

• Lock in your mortgage rate strategically
• Get pre-approved before materials rise
• Price out renovations and timelines early
• Stay informed as policy shifts unfold