If you thought a cooling housing market would finally make homes more affordable—think again. Despite lower sales activity, softening demand, and even a few dips in fixed mortgage rates, owning a home in Canada became harder for the average Canadian in October 2023.

According to fresh data from nesto’s latest affordability report, home prices and income requirements both ticked up, pushing homeownership further out of reach—especially in Ontario, British Columbia, and Quebec. And while some provinces still offer opportunities under the $100,000 income mark, many Canadians now face a painful reality: even when home prices drop, borrowing costs can more than cancel out the benefit.

A Slower Market, But No Relief for Buyers

Sales have continued to slow heading into the final quarter of 2023. According to CREA, national home sales fell 5.6% in October compared to September. Newly listed properties were also down 2.3%, and the sales-to-new listings ratio hit a 10-year low at 49.5%.

In plain terms, fewer people are buying homes and fewer sellers are listing them. Normally, this would create room for buyers to negotiate better deals. But that wasn’t the case this October.

The reason? Despite the Bank of Canada pausing rate hikes in September and October, borrowing costs are still hovering at elevated levels. Fixed mortgage rates have eased a bit, but not enough to make a major dent in affordability. And variable-rate borrowers are still navigating high trigger rates and unpredictable payments.

Homeownership Got More Expensive Across the Country

So how much income does it actually take to buy a home in Canada right now?

Based on nesto’s calculations (which assume a 20% down payment, 25-year amortization, province-level average property tax, and $100 monthly heating costs), the national average income required to buy a home hit $145,493 in October 2023. That’s up from $131,002 just one year prior—an increase of 5.29% year-over-year.

Let’s break down what happened in some key provinces:

British Columbia: The average home price increased by $30,500, and the income needed rose to $202,607—up from $188,439 a year ago.
Ontario: Buyers needed $183,598 in income, up from $175,168, even though average prices only climbed by $5,400.
Quebec: Home prices grew 3.54% year-over-year, pushing the income needed to $101,861, up from $94,697 in 2022.

📊 Year-over-Year Home Price & Income Comparison by Province (2022–2023)

This table compares average home prices and the required household income to afford them in 2022 vs 2023 — helping you understand how affordability has changed across Canada.

Province	Avg Home Price 2022	Avg Home Price 2023	Change (%)	Income Needed (2022)	Income Needed (2023)
British Columbia	$1,050,000	$990,000	-5.7%	$196,000	$184,000
Ontario	$930,000	$870,000	-6.5%	$170,000	$158,000
Alberta	$440,000	$460,000	+4.5%	$83,000	$86,000
Quebec	$470,000	$490,000	+4.2%	$86,000	$90,000
Nova Scotia	$400,000	$420,000	+5.0%	$74,000	$78,000

📌 Data assumes 20% down payment and 5.25% 5-year fixed rate with a 25-year amortization. Based on CMHC stress test calculations.

Six Provinces Where You Can Still Buy a Home Under $100K Income

While homeownership feels like a stretch in places like Toronto and Vancouver, there are still provinces where a six-figure salary isn’t mandatory to get into the market. In October, these were the most affordable regions based on income needed:

Newfoundland and Labrador: $62,507
Saskatchewan: $72,454
New Brunswick: $74,298
Prince Edward Island: $83,335
Nova Scotia: $85,917
Manitoba: $93,142

These numbers reflect provincial averages. So, of course, major cities within each province may vary significantly. But it does show that opportunities still exist if buyers are willing to consider different markets.

And Four Provinces Where You’ll Need Over $100K

If you’re buying in one of Canada’s higher-priced regions, you’ll need to bring a bigger income to the table:

British Columbia: $202,607
Ontario: $183,598
Alberta: $103,248
Quebec: $101,861

In these provinces, a combination of high home prices and costly borrowing makes it difficult for middle-income Canadians to enter the market without support from family or a co-signer.

What’s Causing This Rise in Income Needed?

There are two key forces at play here.

1. Higher Borrowing Costs:
Even if home prices remain flat or fall slightly, a higher interest rate inflates monthly mortgage payments. This automatically pushes the minimum income required upward—especially for those who aren’t putting down more than 20%.

2. Post-Pandemic Rate Lag:
While fixed rates have cooled in recent weeks, they’re still far higher than they were just 12 months ago. Many of today’s buyers are still qualifying at rates above 6%, even if their actual rate is closer to 5.5%. Stress tests also force borrowers to prove they can handle an additional 2% on top of the rate they’re offered.

Expert Outlook: What Happens Next?

Looking ahead, industry experts predict the market will remain subdued until at least Q2 of 2024. Buyers are cautious, and sellers don’t feel much urgency to list. While the Bank of Canada may cut rates in 2024 if inflation eases, don’t expect a return to the 2% or 3% mortgage rates of the pandemic years.

Instead, rates may settle somewhere between 4%–5%—enough to provide some relief, but not a complete affordability reset.

As Chase Belair, Co-Founder of nesto, puts it:

“While we may see rate cuts in 2024, there is no indication we’ll see rates below 4% in the foreseeable future.”

Final Thoughts: Focus on Your Strategy, Not Just the Headlines

Yes, national averages tell us the market is tight. But your personal affordability picture might look better (or worse) depending on your savings, location, and income.

Instead of waiting for perfect timing or chasing the lowest rate, focus on what you can control:

Get a mortgage pre-approval to understand your max affordability
Explore options in more affordable provinces or smaller cities
Consider adjustable-rate or shorter-term mortgages if you’re flexible
Talk to an advisor about timing your purchase with income growth or equity buildup

Why Choose Mortgage.Expert

At Mortgage.Expert, we do more than just compare rates. We help you understand how affordability works in real life—across provinces, rates, and income levels.

Our expert advisors offer honest, pressure-free guidance to help you find the right mortgage strategy, no matter the market. And we’re not tied to any bank, so you’ll always get unbiased advice.

Get your free personalized mortgage consultation today.